The Dish Market Report, September 9, 2024

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

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Poultry

Wings demand has begun to pick up as we enter football season but there is availability. Tenders continue to be mostly steady. Jumbo and medium breasts are seeing increased demand as further processors continue to pull heavy. Small breasts continue to stay steady. Dark meat demand remains very good. Whole birds are mostly balanced.

Beef

Early reports show sales were less than expected as poor weather conditions impacted holiday sales. Limited harvest have led to limited supply on thin meats, PRIME, and upper 2/3rd graded cattle. Ribs and tenders are limited. The chuck and round complexes continue to perform well. Grinds are still trading slightly lower as demand is underwhelming.

Pork

Butts both Bone–in and boneless materials are supported, with increased export interest. Loins are steady in the bone–in sector, while boneless are mixed due to some export demand. Ribs are mixed across types. Spareribs are unsettled, St. Louis are steady & Back ribs are steady due to light trade activity. Bellies are unsettled as supply and demand is mixed. Trim markets have been steady.

The Sea

Seafood

Commodity groundfish market continuing to firm up due to raw material availability. Prices of imported shrimp are also increasing due to import cost increases that are affecting all items coming into the country in containers. Container availability is causing the most recent incremental increase.

Produce

Unfavorable weather patterns across the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala are affecting multiple commodities, leading to anticipated sustained high market prices and potential supply shortages. The Salinas Valley is experiencing warmer weather than typical for this time of year.

Kitchen Sink

Dairy

Shell egg markets are down this week except for Mediums are up. The Block is increasing & Barrel are decreasing. With U.S. cheese stocks down significantly YoY and cheese prices in Europe spiking, the risk is to the upside for CME cheese. Butter is up with Q3/Q4 stocks/use ratios for Europe are record tight.

Grain

Soybean oil futures moved higher last week. The move looked to be technical in nature, and we saw traders rolling their September futures to October futures. The Canadian rail strike seems to be at an end and weather is good on the Canadian prairies for the Canola crop. Palm oil moved higher with lower palm production.

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