The Dish Market Report, December 3, 2024

Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE

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Chicken

Poultry

Young chicken harvest declined 1.4% week-over-week, while total poultry in cold storage dropped 5.7% year-over-year to just over 1.1 billion pounds. The eggshell index decreased 3% last week but saw a significant 38% increase for November, reflecting fluctuating supply and demand dynamics in the poultry market.

Fresh Meat

Beef

Cattle placements in feedlots rose 5% year-over-year to 2.28 million head, slightly exceeding expectations. U.S. feeder cattle imports from Mexico, which account for 4% of the harvest total, have been suspended due to a case of New World Screwworm in Southern Mexico. Total beef in cold storage dropped 3.1% in October to 431.9 million pounds. The choice cutout increased 1.4% last week, while bone-in export ribs reached a record high of $12.99/lb.

Meat Cutting Accessories

Pork

Lean hog harvest declined 2.8% week-over-week, with total pork in cold storage falling 2.7% year-over-year to 426 million pounds in October. Despite the reduced harvest, the pork cutout remained flat week-over-week. However, 42% pork trim saw significant declines, dropping 10% for the week and 49% for the month.

Fresh Vegetables

Produce

The produce market faces ongoing challenges from weather disruptions, transitions, and logistical hurdles, with supply constraints and high prices expected for key commodities through December. Despite gradual improvements, heat damage and cold weather are impacting yields and crop growth, complicating transitions. Broccoli supplies remain tight with prorating expected, while commodities like lettuce, cauliflower, artichokes, and various greens continue to experience high prices and limited availability. Flexibility and coordination are essential to stabilize operations.

Kitchen Sink

Butter and Flour Mixing

Dairy

Spot block cheese prices remained stable, but barrel prices fell to a 32-week low. Spot butter hit a new year-to-date low, reflecting softened market conditions. Meanwhile, cold storage cheese stocks continued to decline rapidly, as highlighted in last week’s October report.

Wheat Grain

Grain

Soybean meal was the only major grain to post week-over-week gains. Corn prices faced downward pressure amid trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat conditions improved as drought in the Southern Plains continued to ease.

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