September 9, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken harvest volumes climbed 1.6% week-over-week, and breast meat prices slid, with boneless/skinless breasts at $1.97/lb and tenderloins at $2.42/lb. Wings held steady at $1.73/lb, though they remain much cheaper than last year. Turkey prices were mixed, while large eggs are now almost 40% lower than this time last year.
Outlook: Expect retail promotions to pick up this fall, which could give chicken prices a boost. With beef at record highs, chicken demand should strengthen, though new tariff pressures may add some uncertainty.
Beef
The beef market was flat to slightly weaker, with ribs showing some strength while ground beef and trim moved lower post-holiday. The choice cutout stayed at $414.21/cwt. Ground beef (81%) dropped to $3.90/lb, while 50% trim fell to $1.52/lb.
Outlook: Expect the beef cutout to soften through September, but holiday demand will keep tenderloins and ribs firm in the months ahead.
Pork
Pork cutout values rose 2% to $113.32/cwt, driven by stronger ham and butt markets. Pork loins and butts gained modestly, while spareribs and bellies were softer. Trimmings were mixed but mostly higher.
Outlook: Cash hog prices are trending lower, and cutout values could ease with softer demand and tariff-related uncertainty.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia prices plunged to a 4.5-year low of $1.52/lb, wiping out gains from 2024. Import volumes have surged, but prices may bounce slightly in the months ahead.
Outlook: Tilapia could recover to the $1.60–$1.70 range, but overall seafood remains under downward price pressure.
Produce
Avocados stayed steady around $30/carton, with healthy supply. Roma tomatoes dipped again, but the decline likely won’t last long. Iceberg lettuce eased a bit, though prices are expected to climb into October.
Outlook: Expect mostly steady produce markets, but operators should budget for firmer lettuce pricing in the coming weeks.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Cheese blocks and barrels slipped to the mid-$1.70s/lb, and butter softened to $2.01/lb. Demand from retail is steady, though foodservice sales are down compared to last year.
Outlook: Butter demand looks stronger internationally, while cheese prices may remain under pressure with steady production and inventories.
Grains
Corn continues its rally, with strong export demand lifting sales to record seasonal highs. Prices are nearing technical resistance at $4.30/bu.
Outlook: Without fresh bullish news, corn prices could flatten out in the coming weeks.
