September 2, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken harvest dropped slightly week-over-week but remains above last year’s pace. Whole birds held steady at $1.19/lb. Boneless/skinless breasts ticked up to $2.03/lb (+7% m/m), while tenderloins slid to $2.52/lb. Wings nudged higher at $1.73/lb but are still down 25% compared to last year. Thigh meat eased slightly. Eggs remain soft, now 30% below year-ago levels.
Outlook: Seasonal demand is expected to build with retail promotions next month, but tariff concerns could dampen export sales and weigh on the market later this year.
Beef
Choice cutout rose to $414.41/cwt with tenderloins (+$0.62 to $18.62/lb) and ribs still leading the way. Striploins eased slightly, and trim was mixed—50% trim fell while 90% lean held firm. Ground beef (81%) edged up to $4.16/lb.
Outlook: Expect the cutout to soften following Labor Day, but holiday demand for premium cuts like ribs and tenderloins will provide counter-seasonal support heading into Q4.
Pork
The pork cutout eased to $111.49/cwt, though butts and ribs gained ground. Boneless loins slipped to $1.31/lb, while tenderloins held near $1.97/lb. Bellies and trim were weaker, with 42% trim dropping to $1.16/lb.
Outlook: Cash hog prices are trending lower. Cutout values are likely to stay mixed-to-lower in the short term, with more noticeable weakness expected in October as tariffs and export uncertainty weigh on demand.
Seafood
Pollock continues its unexpected slump, down five straight months and off 23% year-over-year. Imports hit a 31-year seasonal low, which should support a near-term rebound.
Outlook: Prices are expected to recover in the next couple months, but the window will be short—likely only through October/November before fading into year-end.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce continues its sharp rally, nearly doubling in four weeks on tight Western yields. Tomatoes slipped after a short-lived bump but remain poised to firm through fall. Avocados have stabilized near $30/carton as Mexico transitions crop cycles.
Outlook: Expect high lettuce pricing to persist into late December. Tomatoes will likely climb steadily into November. Avocados look set for a quieter finish to the year.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Cheese blocks and barrels both closed at $1.78/lb, with steady demand at retail and abroad. Butter dropped sharply to $2.08/lb, continuing its month-long slide, though prices remain above the five-year average. NDM was steady at $1.26/lb.
Outlook: Cheese remains competitive internationally, supporting exports. Butter production is shifting toward retail packs for holiday demand, which could limit bulk availability later this fall.
Grains
Markets were calm overall, with spring wheat seeing unusual volatility midweek but recovering by Friday. Soybean oil erased recent gains and is once again testing its long-term moving average.
Outlook: Wheat looks stable heading into harvest updates. SBO may rebound from current levels given past technical support.
