October 7, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production climbed again last week, pushing wholesale prices further down across nearly all cuts. Boneless/skinless breasts slid $0.16 to $1.26/lb, now down 36% month-over-month, while tenderloins fell $0.21 to $1.75/lb. Wings dropped $0.14 to $1.30/lb, extending a 44% year-over-year decline, and drumsticks dipped slightly to $0.53/lb. Turkey markets were mixed—boneless breasts inched up, but whole birds fell nearly 7%. Egg prices also tumbled almost 30% week-over-week.
Outlook: Chicken prices are expected to remain under pressure as harvest rates rise and demand cools. Watch for potential volatility tied to ongoing avian influenza cases this fall.
Beef
Beef prices continued to soften as the market moves past summer demand. The choice cutout fell 2% to $363.22/cwt, with most end cuts trending lower. Ribeyes and loins were mixed, while ground beef held mostly steady at $3.51/lb. Lower placements are helping stabilize cattle prices, but overall values remain weaker compared to earlier this year.
Outlook: Expect modest declines through October before holiday buying supports premium cuts like tenderloins and ribs.
Pork
Pork prices were mixed last week as domestic demand cooled. The pork cutout dropped 3% to $107.35/cwt, led by sharp losses in bellies, which fell 13% to $150.57/cwt. Loins and tenderloins saw slight strength, supported by solid export sales, while ribs and butts softened. Trimmings also trended lower.
Outlook: Expect a steady-to-lower market in the short term, with international demand helping to limit deeper declines.
Seafood
Snow crab prices jumped 5.6% month-over-month at the tail end of the import season, driven by tight quotas and firm global demand. Prices had been easing since February but reversed higher just as inventories tightened. The seafood market overall remains inconsistent as imports fluctuate.
Outlook: Expect snow crab prices to remain steady to slightly lower through early 2026 as post-season inventories rebalance.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce finally bounced after weeks of decline, climbing 12% off recent lows, while other lettuce varieties continued trending down. Roma tomatoes fell 13% but could soon stabilize near $10/carton as prices hit a seasonal floor. Avocados and other key items held steady, offering relief to operators managing fresh costs.
Outlook: Produce prices may trend sideways for now, with gradual increases likely heading into the winter months.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
The dairy complex was mixed as butter and cheese gained momentum ahead of the holidays. Butter rose $0.11 to $1.75/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels climbed to $1.78/lb and $1.72/lb, respectively. Demand for retail butter is increasing as production shifts toward seasonal packaging, and export cheese sales remain strong.
Outlook: Expect firm-to-higher prices through year-end as holiday demand strengthens for butter and cheese.
Grains
Soybeans got a brief lift last week after trade headlines suggested potential talks between the U.S. and China. Still, analysts warn that timing may limit any real export gains as the U.S. season winds down. Corn and wheat markets were relatively steady despite high global supply pressure.
Outlook: Grains may stay rangebound near term, though trade developments could add short-term volatility.
