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Poultry
Chicken production is up 3% year-over-year, supported by higher harvest numbers and increased bird size, yet prices in key chicken parts continue to decline. White meat cuts, including boneless/skinless breasts and tenderloins, have seen sharp drops, down 22% and 24% this month, respectively, while wings dipped below the $2.00/lb wholesale price for the first time since February. Drumsticks and thigh meats remain mostly flat, but turkey prices are beginning to show slight movement, hinting at seasonal increases as Thanksgiving approaches.
Beef
Beef prices continue to trend upward, with notable increases in chuck rolls, ribeyes, and beef trim, supporting an 8% monthly rise in the overall cutout, now at $321.17/cwt. Cattle weights are heavier, yet total beef production has dropped 1.3% compared to last year, pushing prices higher despite mixed movements within choice cuts. Ground beef prices show a significant monthly increase, with 81% lean up 10% even though last week saw a dip; meanwhile, trim segments are also showing volatility, with 50% trim spiking 16% week-over-week.
Pork
Pork production rose slightly by 1% last week, with the cutout gaining 2% to reach $98.15/cwt, driven by stronger rib, ham, and belly prices. Export-demanded cuts like spareribs and hams saw significant increases, with the ham primal up 6% and medium spareribs up 4%. Belly prices are also surging, up 12% for the month, while pork trim prices spiked, with 42% trim up 8% and 72% trim up 12%, reflecting a tighter supply.
The Sea
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock prices saw a 3.3% month-over-month decline in August, reflecting sluggish U.S. demand following a sharp price drop earlier in the year and an unusual pattern in import volumes. Prices surged temporarily in spring but have since stabilized downward as imports and demand remain low. This trend highlights a weak market for pollock, with both prices and volumes declining steadily in recent months.
Produce
The produce market faces ongoing challenges as growers transition between regions, with lasting effects from heat, pest issues, and recent hurricanes impacting availability and prices. Romaine, iceberg lettuce, broccoli, and other leafy greens are seeing reduced volumes due to heat stress and pest damage, while crops in the Southeast, including citrus and tomatoes, are heavily affected by recent hurricanes, leading to significant supply losses. High demand persists for items like avocados and table grapes, though the grape season may end early due to heat-related losses, and mushrooms remain constrained across all varieties.
Kitchen Sink
Dairy
The dairy market showed mixed results last week, with cheese and butter prices dipping slightly amid steady to strong foodservice demand. Cheese prices saw some variation, with CME blocks holding steady while barrels fell by 7.5%, and spot butter prices decreased to $2.65/lb. Milk production trends are stabilizing due to improved cow comfort in cooler regions, though high temperatures in California are impacting output; overall, Class III milk saw a slight 1% increase, reflecting steady demand.
Grain
The grains market remained relatively stable, with soybean oil and corn seeing slight gains. Soybean oil’s increase was largely driven by rising palm oil prices, though U.S. fundamentals may not support a prolonged rally. Corn export sales, however, continued at an impressive pace, with recent sales totaling 3.6 million metric tons—the second-highest weekly October total on record. While demand is strong, especially from Mexico, there’s speculation that these purchases could be front-loaded, potentially slowing down in future months.
