October 21, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production was slightly lower week-over-week but still 3.5% higher than last year. Prices continued to slide, with boneless/skinless breasts down $0.05 and wings off $0.07. Breasts are now down 31% month-over-month, while wings are nearly half of last year’s price. Thigh meat prices also dipped, though still sit above the five-year average. Turkey prices remain strong, with boneless breasts up 270% year-over-year and whole birds up 60%. Egg prices held steady.
Outlook: Wholesale chicken prices are expected to stay under pressure as production ramps up and retail promotions slow. Keep an eye on the turkey market as new avian flu outbreaks could tighten supply heading into the holidays.
Beef
Beef prices showed signs of stabilizing after several weeks of decline. Choice and Select cutouts both edged higher, and live cattle prices are rebounding. Premium cuts like striploins and top sirloins gained ground, while tenderloins dipped slightly. Ground beef and chuck cuts were also stronger.
Outlook: With demand for holiday cuts like tenderloins and ribs increasing through year-end, operators should plan for higher prices on premium beef items as the market firms up.
Pork
Hog and pork prices softened slightly, with the overall pork cutout down to $102.17/cwt. Loin and butt primals saw modest gains, while hams and picnics dragged the market lower. Export demand eased last week but remains relatively stable overall.
Outlook: Pork prices are likely to trend lower in the near term as hog supplies stay ample and export demand slows. Expect some short-term volatility, especially in hams and bellies.
Seafood
Shrimp prices remain one of the few bright spots in seafood, holding steady while other proteins fluctuate. The market has been quiet through much of 2025, with little movement since midsummer.
Outlook: Expect a modest uptick in shrimp pricing through Q4 as the market follows typical seasonal trends before softening again early next year.
Produce
Lettuce prices surged again, up another 16% week-over-week, on pace to hit new highs by mid-November due to ongoing supply issues. Tomato prices slipped slightly but could stabilize soon as weather impacts in Mexico limit supply.
Outlook: Expect lettuce prices to stay high for a few more weeks before dropping toward the end of the year. Tomatoes may see mild price support if supply remains constrained.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy prices were mixed last week. Butter dropped $0.03 to $1.63/lb as producers focused on retail holiday demand. Cheese prices ticked slightly higher, with both blocks and barrels closing at $1.77/lb. Milk production remains strong across most regions.
Outlook: With strong milk output and soft foodservice demand, dairy prices should remain steady to slightly weaker heading into the holidays, while butter demand stays strong in the retail sector.
Grains
Grain markets finally caught a small break, posting modest gains last week. Soybeans avoided a deeper drop thanks to a strong September crush report, though trade tensions with China continue to weigh on sentiment.
Outlook: Soybean prices are expected to stay rangebound near $10–$10.30 until progress is made on trade negotiations. A prolonged standoff could push prices lower.
