This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken breast, tender and wing prices moved lower, while thighs and leg quarters climbed; eggs also eased. That split gives operators a reason to compare cuts rather than assume all chicken is getting cheaper. Producers are slowing output as margins tighten, even as chicken consumption remains strong.
Outlook: Strong demand and slower production could eventually firm chicken prices, so treat today’s lower breast and wing costs as a buying opportunity to evaluate.
Beef
Beef offered some relief as boxed prices and trim softened, but ribs continued their seasonal climb. Production improved from the prior week, although year-to-date output remains lower. For burger-heavy menus, softer trim is worth watching; rib-focused specials still need a careful food-cost check.
Outlook: Better supplies should help moderate beef prices this fall, while seasonal rib demand and cattle-import uncertainty remain risks.
Pork
Pork is providing welcome menu-cost relief, with the cutout at its lowest level in more than three years. Hams and ribs led the weekly declines, and bellies remained well below year-earlier prices. That makes pork worth comparing against higher-cost proteins when planning specials.
Outlook: An expected seasonal increase in fourth-quarter production and subdued consumption should keep downward pressure on pork prices.
Produce
Produce costs remain a mixed bag: iceberg lettuce is at its highest since late 2022, tomatoes are rising, and potatoes unexpectedly jumped. Hass avocados moved lower again. Keep lettuce-heavy menu items under review, and check whether avocado savings can offset some of the pressure elsewhere.
Outlook: Lettuce and tomatoes likely stay elevated near term, while potatoes should ease after harvest and avocado prices appear close to stabilizing.
Dairy
Most spot dairy markets rose, with whey reaching a record, but nonfat dry milk slipped. Cheese blocks hit a one-year high even as cheese supplies remained adequate to ample. Distributor cheddar prices rose in September, but the commentary expects earlier wholesale weakness to bring relief to invoices.
Outlook: Distributor cheddar prices are expected to decline over the next several weeks, although recent spot-market strength warrants watching.
Grains
Grain markets moved lower again, with corn holding closer to steady than the rest. Strong export sales have not yet removed the risk of another corn-price drop. For operators, this is a market to monitor rather than a reason to assume immediate savings on grain-based purchases.
Outlook: Corn could slide toward $4.40 if $4.80 fails to hold, though export demand and tight global supplies may provide support.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna posted a sharp August price increase after a prolonged stretch of below-normal pricing. Import volumes have begun easing, and the commentary sees longer-term recovery potential. Keep tuna specials flexible rather than assuming today’s seafood costs will stay on a steady downward path.
Outlook: Yellowfin prices may ease modestly through year-end before rising again in January, with longer-term upside risk into 2027.
