October 14, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken markets continued their sharp decline last week as production ramped up and demand softened. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped another $0.07 to $1.19/lb, now down 35% month-over-month, while tenderloins slid $0.18 to $1.58/lb. Wings fell $0.12 to $1.17/lb—nearly 50% lower than last year. Turkey prices remain elevated, with boneless breasts up 263% year-to-date, and eggs trended lower by 10% week-over-week.
Outlook: With harvest levels staying high and retail promotions limited, chicken prices may continue to fall through October. Turkey remains the high-priced exception as holiday demand builds, but no new bird flu reports this week signal a more stable outlook ahead.
Beef
Cattle and beef markets edged higher last week, with live cattle up 2% and choice cuts up 1%. Premium cuts like boneless ribeyes rose to $14.91/lb, while chuck rolls and shoulder clods eased slightly. Ground beef 81% dropped $0.31 to $3.20/lb, though lean trim held firm.
Outlook: The recent slowdown in price declines suggests the market may have reached a near-term floor. Expect demand for high-end cuts like tenderloins and ribs to strengthen as holiday buying ramps up through year-end.
Pork
Pork prices tumbled 5% overall, led by double-digit drops in bellies and butts. Boneless pork loins slid to $1.33/lb, while derind bellies fell $0.20 to $1.61/lb—down $0.41 in just two weeks. Hams were the only bright spot, up 2% week-over-week.
Outlook: Consistent harvests and softer domestic demand continue to pressure prices. Strong export interest may help stabilize the market, but operators can expect continued volatility through late October.
Seafood
Atlantic salmon prices fell another 5.1% month-over-month to $4.95/lb—the lowest since 2020. Import volumes have stayed elevated for five months, keeping downward pressure steady.
Outlook: Prices are expected to level off soon before gradually ticking higher from November through early 2026. However, don’t expect a return to early 2025 highs anytime soon.
Produce
Lettuce markets exploded higher, with 24-count iceberg jumping 77% week-over-week—the strongest rally since last fall. Persistent disease pressures and seasonal shifts have reignited the West Coast lettuce surge.
Outlook: Expect prices to keep climbing for the next 3–4 weeks, likely setting new year-to-date highs near the $40 mark before stabilizing in late November.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy prices softened across the board. Butter dropped $0.15 to $1.60/lb as churns prioritized retail packaging for the holidays, while cheese blocks fell slightly to $1.76/lb. Milk production improved, and export demand remains strong.
Outlook: Cheese makers are ramping up for seasonal orders, which could bring short-term price firmness. Butter prices may remain pressured as production stays strong heading into the holiday season.
Grains
The grains market stayed quiet amid limited government data. Soybeans saw a brief lift on trade optimism but settled lower as attention shifted to the upcoming U.S.–China meeting.
Outlook: Without fresh export momentum, November soybeans could slip back below $10. Overall, grain markets may remain range-bound until clearer trade and harvest data emerges.
