November 4, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken harvest volumes were slightly lower week-over-week but remain 2% above last year’s levels. Boneless/skinless breasts dipped another $0.02 to $1.11/lb, while tenderloins held flat at $1.40/lb. Wings and drumsticks saw little movement, with wings still down 45% year-over-year. Thigh meat dropped sharply again, down $0.13 to $1.36/lb, while turkey and egg prices held steady overall, with turkey breasts still significantly elevated compared to 2024 levels.
Outlook: Chicken prices have fallen to multi-year lows due to strong harvest numbers and soft demand. If SNAP benefits are disrupted by the ongoing federal shutdown, household purchasing power could dip further, pushing chicken prices even lower heading into December.
Beef
Cattle markets fell last week, with most contracts down 2–5%. Choice ribeyes and tenderloins saw gains, while rounds were softer. Ground beef prices strengthened again, rising $0.17 to $3.62/lb, and 50% trim also moved up to $1.73/lb. Despite firming in the cutout, beef futures declined amid increased imports and broader market pressure.
Outlook: Holiday primals like ribs and tenderloins should remain supported through November, but leaner cuts and ground beef may face downward pressure if household food budgets tighten due to federal aid disruptions.
Pork
Pork markets were weaker last week, with most primals trending lower. The loin primal dropped 6% to $87.94/cwt, while butts fell 10%. The belly primal was the lone standout, jumping 7% to $152.26/cwt as bacon demand held strong. Trim prices were mostly flat, and hams lost 7%.
Outlook: Despite stronger export activity recently, pork cutout values appear to be slipping again. With lean hog futures declining and domestic demand still sluggish, pork prices may continue softening through mid-November.
Seafood
Mahi-mahi prices have remained high but relatively stable compared to last year’s volatility in other seafood items. Prices are still up over 38% year-to-date but have followed typical seasonal patterns, peaking in spring and holding firm through fall.
Outlook: Prices are expected to ease toward the end of the year as import volumes recover and demand cools. However, limited supply in recent months may keep mahi slightly elevated compared to its usual seasonal lows.
Produce
Lettuce prices soared again, up 52% week-over-week, reaching their highest levels since late 2022—now exceeding $50 per carton. The surge has been driven by tight supply out West and limited relief expected in the short term. Roma tomatoes also climbed, though at a slower pace.
Outlook: Lettuce prices may continue climbing toward $60 per carton before stabilizing by mid-to-late November. Expect some relief closer to December as growing regions transition and supply normalizes.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed last week. Butter slipped slightly to $1.58/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels each rose $0.05, closing around $1.83/lb. Milk production remains strong across most regions, supporting ample cream and cheese availability, while domestic demand holds steady.
Outlook: With inventories stable and holiday demand ramping up, dairy prices are expected to remain steady in the near term. Butter may see a mild seasonal uptick closer to Thanksgiving before easing again in December.
Grains
Grains traded mostly higher last week, except soybean oil, which weakened. A new U.S.–China trade agreement brought attention to soybean exports, with China committing to import 12 million metric tons this year and 25 MMT annually for the next three years. Corn and wheat showed modest strength as a result.
Outlook: Soybeans could see moderate price support through the winter as global demand expectations improve, while corn and wheat remain range-bound pending weather developments and broader trade updates.
