November 25, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production ticked higher this week, keeping most pricing stable across WOGs, tenders, thighs, and drumsticks, while breasts dipped slightly and wings continued their sharp year-over-year decline. Turkey remains the wild card with boneless breasts still surging, and eggs are spiking again due to HPAI, putting extra pressure on operators heading into the holidays.
Outlook: With broiler supplies strong and holiday demand shifting toward turkey, expect chicken markets to hold steady through year-end while egg pricing stays elevated until HPAI cases cool.
Beef
Cattle and beef markets eased slightly as cutout values softened and premium holiday cuts like ribs and tenderloins hit their seasonal highs. Ground beef and lean trim showed modest strength, creating a little more balanced movement across the box for operators planning winter menus.
Outlook: With Thanksgiving pulling attention away from beef, expect overall cutout values to edge lower next week while chucks, rounds, and secondary loins show the best relative strength into December.
Pork
Pork markets slipped this week with broad weakness across the cutout, led by steep losses in bellies and trim, though loins and ribs managed small gains. Overall demand remains sluggish despite strong export interest, keeping pricing opportunities wide open for operators.
Outlook: Without a clear spark in domestic demand, the pork cutout is expected to keep trending lower near-term, giving operators more value-buying opportunities into December.
Seafood
Snapper eased earlier this year amid volatile trade dynamics and seasonal pressure, but late-summer data shows prices stabilizing at their lowest point since 2021. As we move into winter, snapper typically firms up, pointing toward higher pricing through Q1 before softening again in late spring.
Outlook: Expect snapper prices to climb from now through January, remain elevated through Q1, and start trending lower again as we approach May.
Produce
Most produce behaved as expected, but avocados surprised with a second straight drop, falling to $25 and possibly heading even lower thanks to a smooth transition to Mexico’s main crop. Lettuce and tomatoes held steady with modest, predictable movement, suggesting relatively calm produce markets heading into winter.
Outlook: Avocados may dip toward $20 if supply stays clean, while lettuce and tomatoes should stay mostly sideways through the end of the year before normal early-January adjustments kick in.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed as cheese prices held steady to slightly lower, butter softened again, and export interest across the complex remained sluggish. Production remains strong for both cheese and butter, keeping inventories balanced and limiting any major price swings for operators.
Outlook: Expect more sideways movement across cheese and butter as domestic demand holds steady and exports remain quiet through the holiday period.
Grains
Grains saw a broad pullback as excitement around the U.S.–China soybean purchase narrative cooled, with current exports covering only a small slice of earlier expectations. Soybeans led the decline as market optimism reset around unclear buying commitments and slower-than-expected shipments.
Outlook: Unless Chinese buying accelerates quickly, grain pricing—especially soybeans—may continue easing as markets unwind earlier truce-driven gains.
