May 20, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Boneless breast prices edged up to $2.76/lb, up 53% y/y, while tenderloins jumped $0.08 to $2.33/lb. Boneless thighs climbed to $2.37/lb, continuing their upward trend. Whole birds remained steady at $1.35/lb, and wings dropped another $0.07 to $1.17/lb, now down 48% y/y. Drumsticks and bone-in thighs held flat at $0.46/lb and $0.88/lb, respectively. Turkey breast prices rose 3%, and whole turkeys increased 33% due to tighter supply. Egg prices were unchanged.
Outlook: Chicken prices appear to have stabilized, with steady demand for white meat and reduced harvest volume providing ongoing support.
Beef
Choice beef cutout increased 1% to $349.90/cwt and select rose 2% to $339.20/cwt. Bone-in export ribs held at $11.13/lb, while boneless ribeyes dipped 1% to $13.09/lb. Striploins rose 2% to $10.66/lb, while tenderloins jumped 3% to $13.62/lb. Shortloins and top sirloins declined by 4% and 2%, respectively. End cuts, grinds, and trim moved higher. Ground beef 81% rose 5% to $3.48/lb. 50% trim climbed 7% to $1.19/lb and 90% lean hit $3.80/lb.
Outlook: Lower harvest volumes are squeezing packer margins and putting upward pressure on beef prices, which are expected to remain firm in the near term.
Pork
Pork loin primal rose 6% w/w. Boneless loins ticked up $0.01 to $1.34/lb, baby back ribs climbed $0.08 to $2.95/lb, and tenderloins gained $0.09 to $1.85/lb. Butts surged 11% to $125.35/cwt, with bone-in up $0.18 and boneless up $0.20. Rib primal also jumped 11% to $154.89/cwt, with medium spareribs up $0.20 to $1.69/lb. Bellies rose 2% to $149.84/cwt, while trims slipped—42% down to $0.58/lb, and 72% to $0.96/lb.
Outlook: Strong seasonal and export demand continues to support pork prices, while tariff concerns have temporarily eased.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia prices climbed 7.9% m/m to around $2/lb, hitting their typical seasonal peak. Tilapia generally trends lower from spring into fall, although last year saw an unusual late-year spike.
Outlook: Tilapia prices are expected to ease through the summer unless 2024 mimics last year’s atypical price path.
Produce
Roma tomato prices rose another 16.5% w/w to about $14/carton, reaching a seven-week high. Transition-related supply shifts likely triggered the jump, but a prolonged uptrend is unlikely. Avocados continued their steady decline, while iceberg lettuce was unchanged at around $10.50/carton.
Outlook: Romas may see another week or two of modest gains, but overall produce pricing is expected to stabilize as summer crop transitions finalize.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
CME block cheese rose 3% to $1.90/lb, and barrels increased 2% to $1.82/lb. Butter prices edged up $0.01 to $2.33/lb. Retail demand is strong, while foodservice trends remain mixed. Cheese production is active due to steady milk supply. Butter inventories are seasonally building.
Outlook: With strong milk supply and solid retail demand, dairy prices should remain stable, with slight upward movement possible.
Grain
Corn futures showed volatility, with early week declines from fast planting and acreage expectations reversed by strong export data. CMY corn sales hit 1.677 MMT, and NMY sales reached 509K MT. These levels are unusually strong for this time of year.
Outlook: Corn prices may remain under pressure from domestic planting pace, but strong international demand is providing near-term price support.
