March 31, 2026
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production eased slightly, down about 1% week over week, but remains 3.1% above last year on a year-to-date basis, reinforcing an ample supply environment. Broiler chick placements continue to point to production running at least 2% higher through spring. While most chicken markets firmed, wings dropped to their lowest level since June 2023, hovering near $1.00 per pound.
Outlook: Expect stable to slightly pressured pricing as strong production and improved hatch efficiency continue to offset demand.
Beef
Beef supply remains tight, with production down 12.1% year over year and slaughter volumes tracking nearly 10% below 2025 levels. Even with a slight dip in boxed beef cutouts last week, demand continues to hold strong, with USDA projecting 2026 consumption to reach a 17-year high.
Outlook: Prices are likely to stay elevated as tight supply and resilient demand continue to support the market.
Pork
Pork production is running higher, up 2.5% year over year, contributing to softer pricing across key cuts like hams, which recently hit two-year lows. While total inventory is up slightly (+0.4%), the breeding herd is down 1.5%, signaling potential tightening ahead. Markets showed some late-week stabilization but remain under pressure overall.
Outlook: Near-term pressure may persist, but potential downward revisions in supply forecasts could provide support later this year.
Seafood
Cod prices surged 11.8% month over month to start the year due to unexpectedly low import volumes, reversing typical seasonal trends. Supply remains tight, and if imports don’t rebound, pricing could continue climbing into spring.
Outlook: Prices may stabilize if imports recover, but continued tight supply could push cod toward record highs this spring.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce prices continued to decline and are approaching the $10–$15 carton range, offering some seasonal relief. Tomatoes remain volatile, with supply gaps in the Eastern U.S. and limited support from Mexico keeping prices elevated. Meanwhile, 88-count California oranges are holding around $30 per carton, higher than typical for this time of year.
Outlook: Expect continued volatility in tomatoes, while other produce items remain more stable with some upward pressure heading into summer.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, with cheese blocks rising to $1.6305 and nonfat dry milk jumping to $1.914, while butter dipped slightly to $1.8155. Milk production is ramping up seasonally, supporting cheese supply, though butter remains tighter. Export demand continues to fluctuate amid global pricing pressure and rising freight costs.
Outlook: Limited upside in the near term, but seasonal trends suggest potential price increases for cheese and butter in April.
Grains
Grain markets gained momentum late in the week following new renewable fuel policy updates, with stronger-than-expected biofuel mandates boosting soybean oil demand. However, the delay of import penalties to 2028 has created uncertainty around long-term demand recovery.
Outlook: Expect increased volatility as policy developments and biofuel demand continue to influence grain pricing.
