March 3, 2026
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken markets were mostly steady last week, with harvest down 3.5% week-over-week but still 3.3% higher year-over-year. Boneless/skinless breasts held at $1.47/lb (up 16.5% m/m), tenderloins stayed at $1.52/lb, and wings dipped slightly to $1.20/lb but remain 37% lower than last year. Thigh meat strengthened, up 7% m/m and 10% y/y, while eggs dropped sharply, down 26% w/w and now 89% below last year’s levels.
Outlook: Chicken pricing appears stable with modest upward pressure possible into early March, especially on dark meat. Eggs remain under downward pressure due to ample supply, though avian influenza risk could create sudden volatility. Overall, poultry continues to offer relative value compared to historical averages.
Beef
Beef cutouts climbed 3% last week, with choice at $377.89/cwt as packers slowed harvest to support pricing. Ribeyes jumped to $11.35/lb, striploins rose to $10.11/lb, and ground beef 81% increased to $3.84/lb. End cuts and trim also strengthened across the board.
Outlook: Reduced harvest levels are tightening supply and supporting higher prices. Strong February shortloin sales are expected to push loin items higher through March. Operators should anticipate continued firmness, particularly in premium cuts.
Pork
The pork cutout rose 2% to $97.38/cwt, with bellies up 5% and trim markets strengthening. Loins were mixed, with boneless loins slightly lower at $1.38/lb, while ribs softened 4%. Ham prices declined 2% amid softer retail demand.
Outlook: Despite softer retail movement, freezer rebuilding and expected improvements in international sales could lend support in the coming weeks. Pork remains relatively balanced, with belly strength providing some market lift.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia filets rebounded 11% month-over-month after a late-2025 dip, driven by reduced import volumes. Volatility has picked up heading into Q1, a seasonally turbulent period.
Outlook: Prices are expected to trend sideways to slightly lower short-term before a potential March or April spike. Historically, tilapia peaks in early spring, though upside may be capped near the $2/lb range before easing into summer.
Produce
Tomatoes led gains again, with large romas up nearly 15% week-over-week due to lingering freeze impacts. Iceberg lettuce finally pulled back, dropping more than 19% w/w after reaching elevated levels near $50/carton. Western harvest challenges continue to limit supply.
Outlook: Tomato prices are unlikely to return to typical seasonal levels anytime soon and may test higher thresholds before demand slows. Lettuce may have established a short-term ceiling, but ongoing yield issues could keep markets elevated through early spring.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy markets were generally steady to higher. CME blocks rose to $1.53/lb and barrels to $1.56/lb, while butter edged down slightly to $1.86/lb. Cheese pricing remains supported by strong retail demand, and production is running at full pace.
Outlook: Cheese markets should remain stable with modest support from retail and export demand. Butter remains balanced, though active production schedules may limit near-term price spikes.
Grains
Corn and soybeans continued climbing, with soybean oil emerging as the top-performing commodity year-to-date. The rally is being driven largely by speculation around 2026 biofuel blending mandates, which have yet to be finalized.
Outlook: Grain markets remain vulnerable to policy-driven swings. If EPA mandates come in lower than expected later this month, soybean oil and related markets could face downside pressure. Volatility is likely through March.
