March 17, 2026
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production remains robust, up 3.7% year-to-date, with young chicken slaughter 3.5% ahead of 2025 levels. Breasts are flat versus February, thighs are up 13% over four weeks, wings have dipped below $1/lb, turkey breasts softened, and table eggs jumped; USDA forecasts record per-capita chicken consumption, claiming more protein share from beef/pork.
Outlook: Expect breast price pressure from ample supply and weak wings, but thigh strength and rising consumption should support overall poultry values. Monitor wing promotions to offset breast softness in bar menus.
Beef
Beef output is down 7.6% year-to-date amid 10% lower slaughter (offset by heavier weights), yet Choice boxed beef hit six-month highs led by flanks (+16% monthly), loins, and ribs. Per-capita consumption rises 0.5% to 59.6 lbs despite 14% higher retail prices.
Outlook: Tight supplies and resilient demand point to firm-to-higher beef prices short-term. Cash-futures convergence favors buyers watching for plant strike impacts on deliveries.
Pork
Pork production rose 2.1% week-over-week and year-over-year, with cutouts at October highs driven by bellies (+16% monthly) and picnics. Retail prices hit records despite favorable wholesale values; year-to-date output down <1%.
Outlook: Belly-led strength persists near-term, but high retail could curb demand. Upcoming Hog & Pigs Report may signal fall price relief if herds expand.
Seafood
January imports volatile; yellowfin tuna +26% m/m to $4.40/lb after 2025 lows—seasonal January peak in 5/7 years, historically short-lived.
Outlook: Tuna eases through May/June post-rally, with multi-month rebound possible later. Price historically cheap—opportunity for sushi/seafood features now.
Produce
Roma tomatoes (> $40/carton) and iceberg lettuce stabilize after volatility; tomatoes face ongoing supply issues from Mexico/East Coast, iceberg nears mid-January levels. Limes up 19% w/w, doubled since January—typical early March surge.
Outlook: Tomatoes may see more turbulence with limited upside; iceberg trends sideways. Limes peak soon before summer decline—stock up for drink specials.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Quiet CME trading saw butter and cheese dip slightly, whey/NFDM rise; butter demand strong on exports (82% fat). Bulk butter trades near/at market, limiting downside.
Outlook: Export-driven butter holds firm with minimal near-term drops. Cheese softness from low volume may ease, supporting baking/sandwich costs.
Grains
Uptrends intact despite oil-linked volatility; wheat supported above $5.60 Chicago, corn holds gains pre-Plantings Report, soybeans outperform on acre shift expectations. Geopolitics (Iran) aids fundamentals.
Outlook: Wheat/corn stay resilient barring de-escalation; soybeans gain acres, capping later upside. Watch Plantings Report for flour/corn oil menu impacts.
