June 24, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production was slightly higher year-over-year, but pricing across key cuts was mixed. Boneless breasts dropped to $2.65/lb, while tenderloins edged up to $2.59/lb. Wings saw a slight increase but are still significantly down from last year. Thigh meat held steady. In the turkey category, breasts jumped 6% week-over-week, while eggs saw a 1% bump.
Outlook: While overall chicken prices are expected to follow seasonal declines, white meat demand should remain firm due to its affordability and steady pull from both foodservice and retail sectors.
Beef
Despite a small dip in live cattle futures, beef cutouts surged. Choice cuts rose 4% to $393.79/cwt, with tenderloins and top sirloins hitting all-time highs. Ground beef and trimmings also climbed, with 50% trim reaching a record $2.00/lb.
Outlook: Expect beef prices to remain elevated through the July 4th holiday, especially for premium cuts and grinds. Operators should plan for continued strength in pricing, even if packers scale back harvests.
Pork
Pork cutout values rose 4% last week, driven by stronger pricing across most primals—especially bellies and hams. Baby back ribs rose to $3.17/lb, and pork butts climbed on the heels of robust export sales.
Outlook: With summer demand heating up, expect elevated pork prices through early July. This may be the lowest pricing window until late fall, so now is a good time to assess freezer inventory and plan ahead.
Seafood
Salmon prices fell 6.9% month-over-month, marking a return to more typical seasonal levels. This dip followed months of inflated pricing in 2024 and an earlier-than-expected reversal.
Outlook: Salmon pricing is expected to continue its gradual decline through November. For operators, this could be a smart time to reintroduce or promote salmon-based dishes at a better margin.
Produce
Avocado prices ended their 11-week slide with a minor uptick. Roma tomatoes dropped another 1.5%, though losses have slowed compared to May.
Outlook: While avocados are entering their most volatile season, pricing is not expected to spike dramatically. Tomato prices may see short-term corrective strength but are unlikely to trend upward until September.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Cheese and butter prices dipped slightly despite steady retail demand. Blocks and barrels both landed at $1.69/lb. Cream availability remains tight in some areas, and butter remains competitively priced for export markets.
Outlook: Expect dairy prices to hold steady or soften slightly in the short term, with milk production generally meeting demand. Cheese demand remains strong—good news for menus leaning into comfort dishes and pizza.
Grain
The grain market paused last week after the EPA’s renewable volume announcement. Wheat led gains amid a delayed U.S. harvest and geopolitical concerns, though Chicago wheat was the primary mover.
Outlook: Wheat prices may retreat by early July as harvest delays resolve. Expect short-lived volatility, but no sustained price run-ups unless weather issues persist into mid-summer.
