This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production continues to trend higher, with output running about 2% above last year thanks to steady slaughter rates and heavier bird weights. Most chicken categories were stable last week, though wings and leg quarters moved higher while breasts and tenderloins remained relatively flat. One item to watch is producer profitability, which has fallen to three-year lows, raising questions about whether current production levels can be maintained.
Outlook: Chicken supplies remain healthy for now, but if production slows later this year, operators could see upward pressure on pricing.
Beef
Beef production improved slightly week over week but remains 5.8% below last year’s pace year to date as cattle supplies stay historically tight. Wholesale beef prices softened across most cuts last week, but retail beef prices remain near record highs, which could continue shifting consumer demand toward more affordable proteins like chicken and pork.
Outlook: Expect beef pricing to remain elevated overall as tight cattle inventories continue to limit supply.
Pork
Pork production slipped slightly last week, though year-to-date output remains modestly higher because of heavier hog weights. Market performance was mixed, with bacon prices continuing to track below last year’s levels, while pepperoni and sausage remain more expensive due to higher pork trim costs. Recent declines in trim pricing could eventually help ease costs for processed pork products.
Outlook: Pork prices should remain relatively stable, with the potential for lower processed meat costs if trim markets continue to soften.
Produce
Produce markets were relatively quiet compared to earlier this year. While the cyclospora outbreak linked to lettuce from Central Mexico continues to draw attention, it has not significantly impacted lettuce pricing. Iceberg lettuce prices appear to be stabilizing, avocados posted modest gains, and onions continue trending upward, although yellow onion prices are expected to ease in the coming weeks.
Outlook: Most produce categories remain stable, with only modest seasonal price movement expected through August.
Seafood
Shrimp prices continued to soften, with the average import price falling to its lowest monthly level since September 2024. Stronger import volumes have increased supply, helping keep prices lower despite typical seasonal demand. However, this pricing trend may not last as the market moves closer to the fourth quarter.
Outlook: Shrimp remains a strong value-buy today, though operators should expect prices to gradually trend upward later this year.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Cheese markets strengthened again last week, with block cheese prices up nearly 16% over the past month, while butter, dry whey, and nonfat dry milk all moved lower. Milk production continues to expand, helping support cheese supplies while limiting the potential for major price spikes.
Outlook: Cheese prices may stay firm in the near term, but improving milk production should help prevent significant increases across the dairy market.
Grains
Grain markets moved higher as geopolitical tensions and stronger crude oil prices increased buying activity. Wheat prices climbed after disruptions affecting Russian export routes and concerns surrounding Ukrainian shipping, adding renewed uncertainty to global grain supplies.
Outlook: Grain markets are likely to remain volatile until export conditions in the Black Sea region become more predictable.
