July 29, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production is up 3.6% year-over-year, and most wholesale chicken prices dropped last week—except for wings, which increased for the eighth week in a row. Breast prices are down 22% month-over-month but still higher than last year. Bone-in and boneless thigh prices dipped slightly. On the turkey side, prices surged, with boneless turkey breasts up 5% and whole birds up 10%.
Outlook:
Expect chicken prices to continue a seasonal decline in the short term, especially for white meat. However, demand should remain stable thanks to chicken’s value compared to other proteins. Watch for promotions this fall that may reverse the trend.
Beef
Cattle futures rose 1% last week, but both choice and select beef cutouts declined slightly. Rib meat showed strength, while most loin and end cuts (like shortloins and striploins) weakened. Ground beef and trimmings also fell, with 81% ground beef down $0.24/lb.
Outlook:
Most beef cuts have likely hit their seasonal highs. Expect overall beef prices to cool slightly in the coming weeks, though rib and end cuts may see a mild lift to balance out softer segments.
Pork
Hog futures and cash prices climbed last week. Pork cutout rose 1% on strong belly and ham prices, though loins, ribs, and butts dropped. Tenderloins and boneless butts also saw small declines, while spareribs and loins continue to adjust from recent highs.
Outlook:
Pork prices could trend lower next month, but hams are likely to rise in preparation for the holiday season. Tariff-related uncertainty may cause fluctuations—keep an eye on export news.
Seafood
Yellowfin tuna prices dropped another 8.2% in May—after a massive drop in April—hitting a 16-year seasonal low. Imports are still on pace, but expected to slow through November, which should help lift prices.
Outlook:
After two straight months of major declines, yellowfin tuna prices are expected to bounce back through fall. Now could be a good time to buy before the market shifts upward.
Produce
Roma tomato prices plateaued just shy of $15/carton after a five-week rally. However, possible tariffs on Mexican imports could raise prices again later this fall. Iceberg lettuce prices dropped nearly 15% week-over-week. Avocados are trending lower, but prices may briefly rise in August due to typical supply issues. Potatoes continue their slow, pre-harvest climb.
Outlook:
Expect a temporary break in tomato and lettuce prices before they edge higher again in Q4. Watch out for potential volatility in avocados, and plan ahead for continued slow increases in potato prices.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Cheese prices stayed relatively flat, with blocks and barrels both up $0.01/lb. Butter fell $0.11/lb but remains above the five-year average. Domestic and export cheese demand is strong due to competitive U.S. pricing, while butter demand is steady across both retail and export markets.
Outlook:
Cheese prices are holding steady with solid demand. Butter may fluctuate slightly in the short term, but competitive prices are keeping both domestic and international demand strong.
Grain
Corn prices dropped 2.1% despite extreme heat in the Corn Belt. Traders are waiting for crop condition ratings to decline before reacting. Export sales are strong, but not yet enough to shift market sentiment. Soybean oil was the only grain product to see an increase last week.
Outlook:
Corn prices may remain soft until crop quality shows signs of stress. Keep an eye on upcoming USDA crop progress reports for movement in the grain markets.
