July 15, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken prices were mostly down last week. Boneless skinless breasts dropped sharply, now down 30% from last month, while wings ticked up slightly but remain much cheaper than this time last year. Thigh meat prices also dipped. Turkey breast prices jumped 12%, and whole birds rose 6%. Egg prices stayed flat.
Outlook: Expect a seasonal downturn in chicken prices to continue, especially as harvest volumes rise. White meat demand should hold steady due to its affordability, but watch for new tariffs to potentially impact export sales.
Beef
The choice and select beef cutouts fell last week, with declines in ribs and striploins, but tenderloins and shortloins saw modest gains. Ground beef prices dropped, but trim values—especially 50% lean—hit a new all-time high. Mixed performance across primals continues to create volatility.
Outlook: While live cattle prices rebounded slightly, beef prices are still expected to soften in the weeks ahead as packers pull back on harvests to manage supply.
Pork
Pork prices rebounded slightly last week, with gains in bellies, tenderloins, and hams. Butts and ribs slipped, and export sales for pork butts dropped off. Despite the pork cutout recovering 3% from the previous week’s steep drop, there’s still volatility in the market.
Outlook: Expect pork prices to trend lower in the coming month, as global trade uncertainty and tariff concerns continue to pressure the market.
Seafood
Seafood prices dropped significantly last month across major species, with frozen tilapia down 12% m/m. Tilapia’s decline was expected after inflated pricing in early 2024, but the speed of the drop surprised analysts. Import volumes are expected to rise, likely putting a cap on prices.
Outlook: Prices should level out in the months ahead, offering operators a chance to incorporate more seafood at a stable cost.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce prices have nearly tripled since mid-June—an unusual time for such a spike—and could climb further before cooling off. Idaho potatoes are also rallying ahead of harvest, up 40% in the last month. Expect price volatility to continue into fall, especially for lettuce.
Outlook: Be prepared for additional produce swings, with lettuce and potatoes leading the charge. Strategic purchasing will be key through September.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Butter and cheese prices were mostly flat to slightly down, even as demand remains steady domestically and internationally. Heat in some regions is lowering milk production, leading cheesemakers to seek spot market supply to keep up with demand.
Outlook: Expect continued steadiness in dairy markets, with only modest shifts as production balances out against heat-related challenges.
Grain
Grain markets dipped again last week, with corn taking the hardest hit. Record U.S. and Brazil crop projections, paired with strong export reports, couldn’t hold prices up. Despite high export volumes, optimism over trade deals didn’t materialize, adding pressure.
Outlook: Corn exports remain strong, but oversupply continues to weigh on prices. Any new trade developments could change momentum, but for now, the trend remains downward.
