July 1, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Young-bird harvests ran 3.6 % ahead of last year, keeping whole-bird values flat while boneless/skinless breasts tumbled $0.26 to $2.39/lb and wings inched up to $1.26/lb (still half of 2024’s price). Dark-meat items slipped modestly, and the egg index rose 1 % after a 10 % slide in May. Overall supply is healthy, but limited harvest growth is preventing a true glut.
Outlook: Expect the normal midsummer dip in pricing, yet budget-friendly white meat should stay resilient as retailers and foodservice lean on chicken for value-driven promos.
Beef
Live cattle futures eased 1.5 %, yet the choice cutout pushed to $395/cwt on strength in ground beef and lean trim—50 % trim hit a record $2.34/lb. Middle meats (ribs, loins) softened slightly, while end cuts showed a mixed bag. Packers may pare harvests to temper cash cattle, but momentum in the beef complex remains bullish.
Outlook: Prices likely climb into next week before hitting the seasonal peak; plan any July grilling features now and lock in ground beef needs early.
Pork
The composite cutout gained 1 % (up 14 % in June) as bellies climbed another 4 % and tenderloins firmed, though loins and butts were mostly flat. Export interest in butts waned, and trim values slipped—signs the rally is tiring. Futures and cash hogs are starting to diverge, hinting at cooler heads ahead.
Outlook: Many primals appear near their summer highs; look for modest price relief in July but keep an eye on tariff decisions when the 90-day pause expires.
Seafood
Frozen cod filets notched a fresh record at $4.89/lb—up 27 % year-over-year—marking five straight monthly gains. April typically represents the seasonal ceiling as imports trough, so this jump was bigger than expected. Other core whitefish items were volatile but less extreme.
Outlook: With volumes set to rebuild, cod should drift lower through year-end unless we see a repeat of last year’s late-summer counter-seasonal rally.
Produce
Avocado prices surprised to the downside, falling 18 % to a YTD low and dipping below last year for the first time since July 2024. Iceberg lettuce popped 35 % yet sits squarely in its normal seasonal range, while Idaho potato counts have begun their customary pre-harvest climb. Virus chatter in Western lettuce fields bears watching, but nothing has spooked the market yet.
Outlook: Avocado pricing should stay soft into August; lettuce likely holds steady until a September lift, and potatoes may grind up toward $15/carton over the next month before new-crop pressure sets in.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Spot butter crept to $2.54/lb on robust export pull, even as retail promotions cooled. Cheese blocks and barrels slipped to the mid-$1.60s, with milk flows easing but still ample for production. Cream supplies are tight in parts of the West and Central regions, giving butter makers just enough to stay busy.
Outlook: Butter remains underpinned by global demand, while cheese looks range-bound until back-to-school and tailgate season pick up later this summer.
Grain
Winter wheat surrendered the prior week’s geopolitically driven gains, and soybean oil followed crude lower despite a bullish long-term biofuel outlook. Traders braced for potentially bearish acreage and stocks data in today’s USDA reports, which could dictate short-term direction. The wheat harvest is still 9 % behind average, yet prices shrugged, signaling fundamental supply comfort.
Outlook: Near-term volatility hinges on the fresh USDA numbers; longer-run soy-oil bias stays modestly higher, but soybean fundamentals now call the tune.
