January 27, 2026
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Poultry markets leaned higher across most segments last week, even with production ramping up. USDA young chicken harvest reached 176.3 million head, up 12% year over year, yet pricing remained firm. White meat led the charge, with boneless/skinless breasts jumping $0.07 to $1.26/lb, up 8.5% month over month but still 15% lower year over year. Tenderloins and wings also moved higher, while drumsticks softened slightly. Dark meat firmed as well, with boneless/skinless thighs climbing 9% m/m. Turkey markets stayed steady week over week but remain sharply higher year over year, and egg prices continued their steep decline, now down 89% y/y.
Outlook: Despite higher harvest levels, poultry prices are expected to stay stable to slightly higher through the rest of the month as production remains well-aligned with demand. Expect continued firmness in white meat and wings, with eggs likely remaining under pressure.
Beef
Cattle futures eased modestly last week, but boxed beef prices moved higher, signaling continued tightness in the market. Choice cutouts climbed to $367.45/cwt, with strength showing up in the loin complex, particularly striploins. End cuts were mixed, and ground beef pricing edged higher on select items. Trim markets softened slightly, but overall pricing remains elevated relative to historical norms.
Outlook: With cattle harvest running 5–6% below last year and potential for even deeper declines ahead due to packer plant reductions, boxed beef prices should stay supported, even as seasonal demand cools heading into February.
Pork
Pork markets gained momentum last week, with hog futures, cash markets, and the pork cutout all moving higher. The cutout rose to $94.62/cwt, supported by strength in bellies and butts. International demand was notable, with 179 loads of boneless pork butts sold overseas. Some trims softened, but overall pricing trends remain constructive.
Outlook: With harvest volumes easing week over week, pork prices are expected to trend steady to slightly firmer in the near term. While retail demand remains soft, freezer inventory rebuilding is providing meaningful support.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab prices reversed course in October data, rising 7.1% month over month, marking the largest increase since early 2025. While this interrupts a longer-term downward trend, the move mirrors similar seasonal behavior seen last year.
Outlook: The expectation remains for snow crab pricing to resume its downward trend into early spring, with additional relief possible as the on-season approaches in April.
Produce
Tomatoes and lettuce grabbed attention again as weather disruptions reshaped expectations. Roma tomato prices jumped 13% week over week, returning to the $15/carton range, driven by cold weather across the Eastern U.S. Lettuce pricing stayed surprisingly firm, with iceberg holding steady despite expectations for declines. Avocados continued their climb, with 48-count Hass reaching an 11-week high.
Outlook: Cold temperatures across key growing regions suggest tomato prices could remain elevated longer than anticipated, while lettuce may see short-term upside due to harvest and yield challenges. Avocado prices are expected to stay firm until at least Q2.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy markets were mostly higher across the board. CME blocks rose to $1.35/lb, while barrels held steady. Butter climbed $0.15 to $1.46/lb, though prices remain well below last year and the five-year average. Cheese production is increasing, driven by strong whey demand, while domestic retail demand continues to outperform foodservice demand.
Outlook: With production running strong and demand holding steady, dairy prices are expected to remain supported but balanced, with butter availability improving as churns continue operating near capacity.
Grains
Grain markets rebounded last week, led by soybean oil amid anticipation of the EPA’s upcoming 2026 biofuel blending requirements. Soybeans followed suit, nearing technical resistance levels, though concerns remain around unshipped export sales volumes.
Outlook: Soybeans could see limited near-term upside, with resistance around $10.80 likely capping gains until export shipment data improves or policy clarity emerges.
