January 20, 2026
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest was 145.3 million head for the holiday week (+7% y/y). National Composite WOGs rose $0.01 to $1.20/lb. White meat movements were mixed: boneless/skinless breasts $1.19 (+$0.02; +3% m/m, -19% y/y), tenderloins $1.40 (flat; +1% m/m, -17% y/y). Wings edged to $0.99 (slightly higher w/w; +1% m/m, -48% y/y). Drumsticks eased to $0.53 (-$0.02). Boneless/skinless thigh $1.26 (+$0.03; +2.7% m/m) while B/I thighs were $0.61 (+$0.01). Turkey breasts and whole B/I turkeys were flat w/w but remain well above year-ago levels (boneless turkey breasts +198% y/y). Egg shell-index plunged (large eggs -24% w/w, -61% m/m; -87% y/y vs. HPAI-impacted 2024 levels).
Outlook: Steady as she goes — demand remains resilient while supplies continue gradual recovery; expect relatively stable to modestly firmer prices for white meat and continued pressure on shell eggs as flocks rebuild.
Beef
Cattle futures nudged higher (CME Feb cattle ~ $236.10/cwt, +~1%). Choice cutout $360.77 (+1%), select $359.71 (+2%). Ribs and loin items firmed (bone-in export ribs $8.86/lb; boneless heavy ribeyes $10.65/lb; choice tenderloin $14.50/lb). End cuts mostly firmer; ground beef 81% $3.77 (+$0.11). Trim markets advanced (50% trim $1.55; 90% $4.05).
Outlook: Near-term price pressure may ease if planned plant downtime reduces slaughter, but lower production could support cutout values — expect a mostly range-bound market into February.
Pork
Pork cutout rose slightly to $93.60/cwt with most primals firmer. Loin primal $87.53 (+4%); boneless loins $1.31 (+$0.02); loin/baby back ribs $2.68 (+$0.09). Pork butt primal softened to $108.55 (-4%) though significant export sales (185 loads boneless butts) supported demand. Rib and belly primals up (ribs $176.34; belly $124.59). Trim and ham values rose (42% trim $0.58; ham $86.71, +7%).
Outlook: Cutout has held up despite higher harvest; ribs and hams driving strength while butts remain pressured—watch continued export activity and slaughter volumes for direction.
Seafood
Yellowfin tuna remains weak — after a strong start to 2025 prices collapsed, with Oct data showing a new seasonal low. Recent import volumes ticked up unexpectedly, pressuring prices further even as early-Jan prices may have firmed a bit.
Outlook: Expect continued softness in yellowfin through late spring as imports and seasonal patterns weigh on prices; significant upside looks unlikely near-term.
Produce
Avocados led produce moves — 48-count Hass climbed w/w, signaling an early start to the typical Feb–May seasonal rally. Cross-border volumes appear normal; demand seems the key push. Lettuce and tomatoes continued down toward ~$10 and are expected to level; tomatoes look calm for Q1 while lettuce can still see intermittent surges.
Outlook: Expect avocado prices to trend upward into spring; monitor lettuce for potential spikes late Q1 while tomatoes should remain relatively steady.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Mixed week — CME butter $1.31/lb (+$0.01) with active retail demand and busy churning; CME blocks $1.29 (-$0.07) and barrels $1.36 (-$0.04) lower. Milk output strong, cheese production steady, and spot volumes plentiful post-holidays. YTD average block prices down vs. last year and five‑year average.
Outlook: Cheese prices face downside pressure from ample milk supplies; butter is supported by retail demand and active churning — expect a mixed near-term picture.
Grains
Corn led the action — March corn plunged ~5.4% on a surprisingly larger USDA national yield and higher harvested acreage, pushing 2025 production to ~17 billion bushels and Dec. 1 stocks to ~13.3 billion bushels. Later-week demand signals (record ethanol runs, flash export sales) were supportive but insufficient to offset heavy supplies.
Outlook: Abundant corn stocks keep downside risk unless sustained demand (ethanol, exports) materializes; any recovery will likely require months of stronger demand or a drop in acreage.
