August 26, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken harvests held steady at 171.8M head, slightly above last year. Whole birds softened, but breast meat saw strength with boneless/skinless breasts up 9% year-over-year. Wings slipped by a penny yet remain nearly 30% below last year’s prices. Eggs slid 9% week-over-week and are down almost 29% from 2024.
Outlook: The seasonal slowdown in chicken demand is beginning to ease, though tariffs could pressure export sales and weaken prices into fall.
Beef
The cattle and beef complex surged, with choice cutout climbing 3% and tenderloins jumping to $18.37/lb. End cuts like chuck rolls and rounds also moved higher. Ground beef gained momentum with 81% lean up to $4.09/lb.
Outlook: Expect continued strength as the industry gears up for Labor Day, with tenderloins and ribs showing early holiday demand.
Pork
Pork cutout values dipped 1% to $112.60/cwt. Loins were mixed, but butts and ribs firmed, buoyed by export sales. Bellies and hams weakened, with ham primals down 14%.
Outlook: Lean hog cash prices are softening, and cutout values could trend lower next month amid tariff uncertainty and slower exports.
Seafood
Yellowfin tuna prices continued their surprising slump, down nearly 37% over the past three months despite softer imports.
Outlook: Supplies are expected to tighten into November, which should help prices rebound, though they may not breach $4/lb until early 2026.
Produce
Tomatoes and lettuce led the charge higher. Iceberg prices jumped 10.5% w/w, and with the September–November rally approaching, prices are unlikely to ease soon. Roma tomatoes corrected higher after sharp summer losses.
Outlook: Tomato markets should steady in the short term, but lettuce is primed for another extended rally, potentially pushing toward last year’s highs.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Butter led declines, dropping $0.04 to $2.24/lb, while cheese markets were steady to weaker. Milk supplies remain tight as heat impacts cow comfort, though retail and export cheese demand is stable.
Outlook: Butter demand from foodservice is down and production is easing. Expect butter to remain under pressure while cheese stays competitive internationally.
Grains
Corn and soybeans found rare strength after the Pro Farmer crop tour revealed weaker yields in key states like Iowa and Illinois versus USDA estimates. Wheat managed slight gains.
Outlook: Lower yield expectations sparked a rally, but Minnesota’s bumper crop could offset some national losses. Markets will stay weather- and report-driven.
