August 12, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest dipped 1% from last week but was still nearly 2% higher than this time last year. Whole birds and WOGs saw modest price declines, while white meat was mixed—boneless/skinless breasts climbed to $1.95/lb, but tenderloins held steady. Wings were up slightly and remain 17% higher than last month, while thigh meat softened. Turkey prices jumped, with boneless breasts up 12%. Egg prices eased 3% for the week.
Outlook: The seasonal chicken market slowdown is losing steam, but looming tariffs could weigh on exports. White meat continues to draw steady demand thanks to its affordability. Prices should stay flat to softer until retail promotions ramp up in the fall.
Beef
Beef saw a strong price surge last week, fueled by pre–Labor Day demand. The choice cutout rose 5%, with ribs and tenderloins posting notable gains—HVY ribeyes hit $12.83/lb. While strips slipped slightly, chucks, rounds, and ground beef all firmed. Trim markets also moved higher, led by a $0.25 jump in 50% lean trim.
Outlook: Seasonal holiday buying is driving short-term price strength, and even end-of-year cuts like tenderloins and ribs are seeing early interest. Expect firm pricing to persist through the holiday window before moderating.
Pork
Pork prices ticked higher overall, with the cutout up 2% to $116.33/cwt. Loins, ribs, and bellies showed strength, with the belly primal jumping 6%. Butts and hams lost some ground, and tenderloins softened slightly. Futures and cash hog prices were mixed, reflecting uncertainty in the market.
Outlook: The near-term outlook is for mixed-to-lower prices as summer demand fades. Longer-term, tariffs and volatile export sales could apply more downward pressure next month.
Seafood
Cod prices fell sharply again, down over 12% m/m, reaching the $3.80/lb target earlier than anticipated. This marks two straight months of steep declines following an already soft May. Import volumes have been lighter than normal, which could provide some stability ahead. Despite this, the seafood market remains historically volatile compared to typical years.
Outlook: Cod prices are expected to hover near current levels through the remainder of 2025, though any supply disruptions could quickly reignite price swings.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce reversed recent declines, spiking to $25.49/carton due to light weights and disease risk in Western growing regions. This follows July’s YTD high, which many expected to normalize. If trends hold, iceberg could approach $35/carton later this fall, potentially staying above $20 into early 2026. Avocados moved the opposite direction, with 48-count Hass hitting their lowest price since Jan 2024 despite crop transitions in Mexico and tariff chatter.
Outlook: Lettuce pricing remains highly vulnerable to further weather or disease setbacks. Avocado prices should stay relatively low into year-end unless significant supply disruptions emerge.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Cheese led dairy market gains last week, with CME blocks up $0.15 to $1.83/lb and barrels higher by $0.12. Butter prices fell $0.07 as retail demand softened, though tighter cream supplies supported spot cream values. Milk production remains seasonally low but steady enough to meet needs. Cheese production is holding strong, supported by steady foodservice orders and mixed retail sales.
Outlook: Cheese demand from restaurants should help maintain current price levels through the near term. Retail softness could limit further gains unless export activity strengthens.
Grains
Grain markets stabilized after weeks of weakness, with modest w/w gains in corn, wheat, and soybean meal. Strong export demand helped offset forecasts for a larger U.S. corn yield—now expected at 184 bu/acre and possibly ending the year near 188. The WASDE report loomed over trading, keeping gains in check. Wheat saw minor strength, while soymeal bounced moderately.
Outlook: Larger harvest projections will cap upside potential, but robust global demand could keep corn prices anchored above $4 as long as late-season weather remains favorable.
