May 12, 2026
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production continues to run strong, with supplies increasing both week-over-week and year-over-year. That ongoing production growth is continuing to pressure chicken pricing, especially for breast meat and wings, which both moved lower again last week. Tenders and thighs posted modest gains, while egg prices softened significantly with wholesale large eggs falling below $0.50/dozen. Meanwhile, turkey breast pricing continued to strengthen. Strong profitability from major producers like Tyson Foods and Pilgrim’s Pride is encouraging even more expansion across the chicken industry, which could keep supply levels elevated through the second half of 2026.
Outlook: Operators may continue to see favorable pricing opportunities on several chicken categories this spring and summer, especially breasts and wings. However, turkey breast pricing could remain elevated, and any seasonal chicken rally may be limited by aggressive production growth.
Beef
Beef supplies remained tight last week as packer margins stayed under pressure, limiting production. Total beef output fell 3% versus last year, while cattle slaughter remains sharply lower year-to-date. Even with softer production, grilling demand helped push loin, rib, and flank pricing higher. Beef trim markets also continued climbing, with both 90’s and 85’s reaching record-high weekly averages. Meanwhile, the U.S. imported a record amount of beef in March, largely lean beef used for ground products.
Outlook: Ground beef availability should remain relatively supported thanks to elevated imports, but operators should still expect continued pricing pressure on premium middle meats and grilling cuts heading into peak summer demand season.
Pork
Pork production improved slightly last week and remains generally stable compared to last year. While the overall pork cutout averaged lower due to a sharp drop in pork bellies, ribs and butts posted strong gains. Bellies are now trading at nearly a 14% discount to last year, creating potential value-buying opportunities for operators. Seasonal pork demand is still expected to improve through Q2, though production declines are not as steep as normal.
Outlook: Pork pricing should still trend seasonally higher into summer, but gains may be more moderate than usual. Bellies could offer near-term menu value opportunities, while ribs and butts may continue seeing upward pressure as grilling demand strengthens.
Seafood
Seafood markets saw major movement in frozen cod pricing, with import prices surging sharply again in March after already elevated levels throughout 2025. Import volumes have remained tight, helping push cod prices to new all-time highs. However, import volumes are expected to improve beginning in May.
Outlook: Cod pricing may remain elevated short term, but improving import volumes later this spring and summer could help ease some market pressure during the second half of the year.
Produce
Lettuce, onions, and tomatoes remained the biggest pricing stories in produce last week. Onion markets were mostly flat to lower, signaling prices may be nearing their peak sooner than expected. Iceberg lettuce remains elevated with limited supply relief expected until later this month, while tomato prices continued climbing despite early signs of improving supply conditions.
Outlook: Operators may start to see some relief on onions first, while lettuce and tomatoes could remain volatile through at least the remainder of May. Produce buyers should continue monitoring markets closely and stay flexible with menu planning where possible.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Most dairy markets softened slightly last week, particularly butter, while nonfat dry milk moved higher again. Export demand for nonfat dry milk appears to be weakening after domestic pricing surged to record premiums over global markets. March export volumes fell nearly 8% year-over-year, marking the weakest March shipment levels since 2017.
Outlook: Butter markets may remain relatively stable to softer in the near term, but nonfat dry milk pricing could face increased volatility if export demand continues slowing into summer.
Grains
Corn, soybean, and wheat markets all moved lower last week, reversing most of the prior week’s rally. Easing fertilizer concerns tied to geopolitical developments helped pressure markets overall. Wheat prices fell despite ongoing concerns surrounding lower yields and crop abandonment in Kansas, one of the country’s largest wheat-producing states.
Outlook: Grain markets may remain volatile as traders monitor crop conditions and global geopolitical developments. Wheat pricing could still experience renewed strength if this week’s Kansas Wheat Tour confirms significant crop damage.
