September 16, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Poultry markets remain steady overall. Wings are the hot item right now with strong football-season demand, while breast meat and tenders are showing balanced supply and demand. Dark meat continues to be the best value on the bird, giving operators cost-effective menu versatility.
Outlook: Expect wings to stay firm through the fall sports calendar. Breast and tender pricing should hold stable, while thighs and drumsticks remain a strong cost-management play. Operators can lean into dark meat dishes — think tacos, rice bowls, or sandwiches — to keep margins strong.
Beef
Beef markets have cooled after summer’s grilling push. Middle meats like strips and ribeyes are more affordable than in July, while demand has shifted to value cuts such as chucks, rounds, and grinds. Retail activity is supporting ground beef, while restaurants are eyeing braise-friendly items for fall menus.
Outlook: Chucks and rounds may soften slightly over the next few weeks, while grinds could remain firm if retail continues promotions. Operators should consider highlighting chili, stews, and other comfort dishes as cost-friendly, seasonal features.
Pork
Pork markets are mixed. Bellies remain volatile, keeping bacon pricing unpredictable, while loins and ribs are providing solid value as operators look for alternatives to beef. Ham demand is stable, supported by deli and sandwich programs.
Outlook: Bacon prices will likely continue to swing week to week. Loins and ribs should remain competitive for fall menus. Operators can mitigate bacon volatility by shifting features to pulled pork, ribs, or sausage-based dishes.
Seafood
Seafood markets are stable overall. Whitefish and value-added fillets remain steady, and shrimp markets are balanced, though specific sizes carry small premiums. Demand from operators continues to favor pre-portioned seafood items for consistency and labor savings.
Outlook: Expect stable conditions on most species, though premiums on certain shrimp sizes or branded specs may linger. Operators should keep menus flexible, using tacos, bowls, and pasta dishes that allow for spec substitutions without impacting guest experience.
Produce
Leafy greens are steady out of Salinas with mostly good quality, though heat remains a watchpoint. Tomatoes are mixed depending on region, with grape and cherry sizes showing tighter supply. Potatoes and onions are stable with new-crop supply helping balance markets. Avocados are available but with size variability, while berries remain variable in both supply and quality depending on district.
Outlook: Greens could firm slightly if heat affects yields. Tomatoes and berries are likely to remain inconsistent in the short term. Potatoes and onions should stay steady. Operators should plan for flexibility in salad builds and be ready with substitutions on fresh fruit offerings.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Dairy markets are relatively calm. Cheese blocks are stable, supported by balanced demand from both foodservice and retail, while butter is beginning to firm with seasonal holiday baking demand. Milk supplies remain adequate.
Outlook: Cheese is expected to hold steady near term, while butter could climb as Q4 demand increases. Operators should consider locking in mozzarella and shred needs now and watch dessert costs as butter strengthens.
Grains
Grain markets are steady, with flour supported by adequate harvest progress. Bakers and operators relying on wheat-based goods are seeing relief compared to earlier in the year, though logistics costs remain a factor to watch.
Outlook: Expect mostly sideways pricing in the near term. Regional transportation and freight costs remain the key variable. Operators should revisit specs on dough, bread, and pizza to ensure maximum yield and minimal waste.
