October 28, 2025
This week’s insights on key commodities and market shifts—powered by CommodityONE, exclusively for Dining Alliance members.
Poultry
Chicken production eased slightly last week, with USDA harvest levels down 1% week-over-week but still 2.4% higher than last year. Boneless skinless breasts slipped another cent to $1.13/lb and are now down 20% month-over-month. Tenderloins also softened to $1.40/lb, while wings and thighs continued their steady decline. Turkey and egg prices held flat, though turkey remains significantly higher year-over-year.
Outlook: Chicken prices are finally showing signs of bottoming out. Retail promotions and holiday demand should create modest price support in November, though higher harvest volumes will likely limit any major rally.
Beef
Despite softer cattle futures, boxed beef prices continued their upward trend. Choice beef climbed 2% to $373.14/cwt, supported by strong demand for premium cuts ahead of the holidays. Ribs, loins, and tenderloins all gained, while end cuts and ground beef also firmed as consumers shift toward value items. Trim prices rose across both lean and fatty blends, signaling continued processing demand.
Outlook: Expect steady-to-firm beef prices in the coming weeks as retailers prepare for holiday features and export demand stays strong.
Pork
The pork complex weakened as the cutout fell 3% to just under $100/cwt, with loins, bellies, and hams leading the slide. Tenderloins provided a rare bright spot with slight gains, while export sales of pork butts helped offset some of the domestic softness. Trimmings were mixed, with lean 72% trim down noticeably.
Outlook: Even with export interest improving, domestic demand remains uneven. Pork prices are likely to stay under mild downward pressure through early November.
Seafood
Scallop prices have dropped sharply in recent months, falling nearly 40% in July and hitting a new four-year low. While the decline looks dramatic, it aligns with seasonal patterns—scallop prices often bottom out in midsummer before firming again in late fall. The market should stabilize soon, though prices are unlikely to return to early-year highs.
Outlook: Scallop pricing could rebound modestly into November before softening again early next year as seasonal demand slows.
Produce
Produce markets remain active as cooler weather tightens supply. Iceberg lettuce prices rose another 16% week-over-week to a new year-to-date high, while tomato markets took center stage with large romas jumping nearly 60%, erasing several weeks of losses. Avocados inched higher for only the third time since March, stabilizing near $30 per carton.
Outlook: Expect firm pricing on lettuce and tomatoes as growing regions transition and demand stays strong. Avocado markets should remain steady heading into November.
The Kitchen Sink
Dairy
Most dairy markets softened last week, with cheese blocks and barrels both slipping slightly, though overall demand—especially export orders—remains healthy. Butter eased modestly to $1.56/lb, still trending above the five-year average, and cream supplies are plentiful as milkfat content increases seasonally. Processors report balanced inventories and steady production schedules despite plant maintenance in some regions.
Outlook: Strong domestic and export demand should keep butter and cheese markets stable through early November, even with a bit of short-term softness.
Grains
Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal all posted solid gains, breaking through technical resistance levels and finishing the week higher. Traders appear optimistic about potential trade progress with China, though no official news has confirmed that outlook. Analysts note that fund activity and speculative buying likely drove the sudden rally.
Outlook: Grain markets may remain choppy as traders wait for firmer signals on export demand and trade negotiations. Expect more volatility than direction in the short term.
